Peter Klevius global cooling warning: We are fools if we don't prepare for a sudden start of the next ice age which is already overdue and abundant with red flags!
According to Peter Klevius research, it was the Gulfstream that caused the Eurasian snow cover which together with Milankovich cycles explains the onset of the last ice ages. Cooling via a thin but longer lasting snow cover can trigger the next ice age extremely quickly - global warming can not!
It's the very existence of the Antarctic glacier after the Eocene maximum and the Greenland glacier after around 20 Ma - when the Caribbean first started to disrupt the free ocean flow between South- and North America - that functions as a "capacitor" which explains why the global cooling gets worse over time. Antarctic glaciation was a consequence of ocean circulation and Greenland because of the Gulfstream (see text below).
If you blindly follow CO2 - which you shouldn't - no glacial inception is projected to occur at the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 390 ppmv. Indeed, model experiments suggest that in the current orbital configuration—which is characterized by a weak minimum in summer insolation—glacial inception would require CO2 concentrations below preindustrial levels of 280 ppmv. However, CO2 increase in the past interglaciations was a consequence of a diminished snow cover over Northern Eurasia which led to increase in vegetation and CO2 before glaciation. Whereas glaciers need a long time to melt, snow melts immediately when temperature allows - including warm rain that can melt much colder snow. And immediately when the snow disappears, vegetation starts to grow. This is why ice core information based on glaciers has a delay which makes it appear that CO2 could be initially involved - which it wasn't because first the snow had to melt. *
* Low altitude cloud cover closely follows cosmic ray
flux; that the galactic cosmic ray flux has the periodicities of the
glacial/interglacial cycles; that a decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux
was coincident with Termination II; and that the most likely initiator
for Termination II was a consequent decrease in Earth’s albedo. The
temperature of past interglacials was higher than today most likely as a
consequence of a lower global albedo due to a decrease in galactic
cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth’s atmosphere. In addition, the
galactic cosmic ray intensity exhibits a 100 kyr periodicity over the
last 200 kyr that is in phase with the glacial terminations of this
period. Carbon dioxide appears to play a very limited role in setting
interglacial temperature.
Whereas interglaciations are characterized by exceeding precipitation, ice ages are arid. So contrary to "global warming warnings", we should prepare for every next year possibly being the last before the steep fall into the next ice age.
Since farmers started clearing land for plants and flooded fields to grow rice while cattle breeders began to raise livestock, they also contributed to altering the climate - long before the industrial revolution - of which led to a rise in the atmospheric emission of carbon dioxide and methane. Without this human influence, and the following Industrial Revolution, Earth may already been headed for the next ice age.
However, the pressure from the natural oscillations is overwhelming any human activity when considering the effect of a volcano eruption in the midst of present interglacial 12,880 bp which managed to trigger the Younger Dryas - which climate hysterics now wrongly use to call "the last ice age" and therefore equally wrongly implying we have plenty of time before the next ice age.
The science of snow cover
An anomalous “north-south” dipole mode of the snow water equivalent (SWE) persisting from winter to spring in the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes contributes to prolonged winter-springtime coldness in midlatitude Eurasia and is closely linked to the declining November Arctic sea ice concentration over the Barents-Laptev Seas which can induce a teleconnection pattern over the mid-to-high latitudes in the following winter, accompanied by an anomalous ridge over the Ural Mountains and an anomalous trough over Europe and East Asia. Such changes in the large-scale circulation lead to more cold surges and heavy snowfall in the midlatitudes and light snowfall in the high latitudes, forming an anomalous north-south dipole mode of the SWE, which further reduces the temperature through thermodynamic feedback. Due to seasonal memory, this SWE pattern can persist into the following spring and can lead to springtime midlatitude coldness via thermodynamic and dynamic processes for which the anomalous SWE condition can lead to anomalous wet soil, reduced incoming surface solar radiation, and cooling air in the midlatitudes. This phenomenon induces an enhanced Siberian high and a deepened East Asian trough via the snow-Siberian high-feedback mechanism, which favors a cold spring in northern East Asia.
This mechanism interacts with the Milankovich cycles in a pattern that, although not fully understood, is visible in the increased amplitude of regular glacial-interglacial oscillations in the Pleistocene after the Panama isthmus closed entirely. This closing led to the strengthening of the Gulfstream or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—one of Earth’s major ocean circulation systems which has a major impact on the climate of especially Northern Europe.
Peter Klevius' simplified climate model based on facts we already have:
1. Earth's temperature has steadily gone down since Eocene 50 Ma due to tectonics disturbing the ocean flow between Africa and Eurasia while opening up the ocean flow around Antarctica which turned it from green to an all covering glacier.
2. The oscillations have steadily increased in amplitude with top temperature stabilizing while ice age temperatures continue to fall.
3. The mechanism behind changing Pliocene-Pleistocene oscillations is due to a combination of a) the closing of the Caribbean ocean flow which triggered the Gulfstream more strongly to the North, and b) snow cover or lack thereof over Northern Eurasian lowland, and c) Milankovitch cycles.
4. The latest pattern started around 3 Ma which is exactly when the Homo lineage appeared - see:
https://peterklevius.blogspot.com/2023/01/how-pliocene-pleistocene-panama-isthmus.html
Peter Klevius wrote:
Wednesday, May 9, 2018
Klevius predicts: Singularity will arrive sooner than most expect - but a new iceage may start even sooner.
Have humans prolonged the onset* of the next ice-age to a breaking point?
* Do realize the treacherous behavior of snow cover. It can be extremely thin while the reflective effect is still 100%. It can jump in and out of meteorological records without being always noticed (in Sweden no records are kept after mid May). It can expand even when temperature goes up, due to increased precipitation in cold but usually dry areas. And snow cover can expand horizontally thousands of kilometer in no time.
Updated map 2021:
caused activities) must have some effect on the atmosphere - although this effect could suddenly drown in other "natural" effects (compare the butterfly flapping a hurricane).
Klevius analysis (from from the 1980s and on the web 2006): The Gulf stream is loosing stamina, meaning more snow cover lingering longer. This leads to extremely fast onset of cooling and due glaciation. A reported 15% decrease means we're in for cooling business. Changing rotational axis etc. longterm phenomenon can easily be outperformed in a shortterm scenario through local changes in precipitation combined with just a slight drop in temperature. Fennoscandia, northern Russia and Canada constitute such potentials (compare previous little and big ice-ages), especially at a time when we've already passed the usual tipping point.
We are way overdue with the coming of the next ice-age. Could it really be that we during Holocene have managed to keep it at bay? In Klevius book Demand for Resources (1992) he also wondered why humans didn't become modern already at the previous heat peak some 120 kyr ago? The big skulls were already there. Today Klevius theory on human evolution has the answer.
Due to the polemic nature of the mostly bi-facial approach to climate change, facts are either exaggerated or toned down. So for example, is the relation between the hemispheres often hidden as global or even presented with a confusing mix of Celcius and Fahrenheit for the sole purpose of "weighing" a certain stand point.
Indian ocean is the only one disconnected from the north and therefore reflects what Klevius wrote about 2006.
Snow cover is the opposite to CO2 - but much quicker.
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